Retailers outlook
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from the Engine Room
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August 13, 2010
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It is no wonder that the retailers have performed poorly. Disposable income and retail sales have fallen significantly over the past year as a combination of rising mortgage rates and unwinding of government handouts has taken its toll on year-ago comparisons.
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Global Asset Allocation themes pt2
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from the Engine Room
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May 24, 2010
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The US, G7 and Australian consumer recovery at risk from further decline in household wealth/increased savings.
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2nd year of recovery
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StrategyEngine Observations
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April 21, 2010
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The best 2nd year recoveries would be those that had a combination of solid/improving growth, steady/low/declining inflation, low/steady Fed funds and reasonable valuations.
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The 2nd phase of recovery
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StrategyEngine Observations
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December 18, 2009
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In this note we look at what has unfolded in the following 12 month periods at a similar stage in previous market recoveries.
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Global Equities...peak or pause
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StrategyEngine Observations
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November 24, 2009
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In this note we focus on some of the key drivers of equity performance (ISM, Fed funds, bond yields, EPS and valuation) and compare them across periods. Are conditions closer to that of 1974 and equities markets are poised to move higher or are they near a peak?
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Domestic v Global Equities
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StrategyEngine Observations
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July 31, 2009
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Relative EPS revisions/momentum appears to have a good relationship with domestic equities v global equities.
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ISM recoveries
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from the Engine Room
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May 14, 2009
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Last nights US retail sales data was disappointing and raises doubts over the strength and/or sustainability of any global IP recovery.
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Markets at critical point
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StrategyEngine Observations
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April 27, 2009
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A number of markets have moved to critical levels. To move to the next stage of recovery in “risk assets” markets need to feel there is a reasonable chance that growth momentum can be sustained.
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Global IP growth update
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from the Engine Room
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November 13, 2008
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With the release of the Chinese IP numbers we have downgraded our global IP forecasts. Chinese IP for October came in at 8.2% yoy.
G7 IP is projected to fall to –7% in the year to February 2009, which leaves this downturn the worst since 1973-74
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Equity market trough timeline
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from the Engine Room
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October 21, 2008
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Looking at past troughs in US equities we see that the market has turned 3-6 months before the trough in the ISM, 4-8 months before the IP trough and 3-12 months before EPS and profits
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Investment Bulletin Oct 08
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from the Engine Room
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October 03, 2008
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Global growth forecasts continue to be downgraded. Europe and Japan are in recession with IP growth slowing to –1% in Germany and –4.7% in Japan. US IP has slowed to –1.5% and Chinese IP is now 12.8%.
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Investment Scenarios 2008
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StrategyEngine Observations
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May 01, 2008
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In this note we look at a range of scenarios for the US economy, discuss the key drivers of the US economy and highlight the implications for asset class returns. While our expectation is that the US has a prolonged period of weak growth, there is likely to be better news in the near tem which could see markets continue to support the “recovery” scenario.
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Resources. IP & the USD
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from the Engine Room
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March 19, 2008
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Normally there is a good relationship between global IP momentum and the CRB. Global IP momentum has eased (with more to come), yet the CRB had pushed higher.
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HIS Strategy Bureau Service
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Newsletter
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March 11, 2008
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The Investment Strategy Bureau Service provides access to Heuristic Investment System’s vast economic and financial market databases, the StrategyEngine analytical platform and years of expertise and experience in investment markets.
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Equity Sector Strategy
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StrategyEngine Observations
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March 01, 2008
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Equity market now cheap globally. Australia fair value but earnings risk emerging for domestic focussed sectors. Value re-emerging in property, utilities, insurance, diversified financials and banks.
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Corporate Spreads & Equities
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from the Engine Room
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February 11, 2008
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Typically, peaks in BBB spreads coincide with the troughs in activity.Peaks in spreads have also coincided with troughs in profits.
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Heuristic's News
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Newsletter
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December 06, 2007
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HIS’s Investment Bureau Service continues to grow, with the addition of two new clients.
Heuristic's recently started working with vaneyk Research, providing investment strategy and economic analysis. Mark Thomas said, " we use Heuristic’s as an objective source of economic and investment analysis. Their StrategyEngine platform allows us to investigate investment ideas, to test "theories" and identify and formulate investment strategies in a more interactive manner. The combination of Heuristic's investment management experience and the StrategyEngine software is a useful input into our investment management process."
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Oil becoming a risk to consumer
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from the Engine Room
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September 20, 2007
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In inflation adjusted terms, oil is slightly above 1990 levels and would have to rise to around $100 to meet the 1980 peak.
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