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News Archive
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May 24, 2010
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Global Asset Allocation themes pt2
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September 20, 2007
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Oil becoming a risk to consumer
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Equity market trough timeline
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October 21, 2008
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Looking at past troughs in US equities we see that the market has turned 3-6 months before the trough in the ISM, 4-8 months before the IP trough and 3-12 months before EPS and profits
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The big unknowns are….can we envisage a trough in the ISM and consumption within 3-6 months? We would suggest yes, but the near term decline will be sharp.
Aside from attempting to factor in market bottoms, are valuations attractive? At 14 times trend EPS the US market currently reflects the average of 4 very different eras. The concept of “cheapness” depends very much on whether any of these past eras are relevant going forward.
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